Kathmandu, March 2: Madhes-based parties face a tough election this time. The buzz that once surrounded them is missing. Many voters now say these parties may struggle to hold their ground.

As the Rastriya Swatantra Party gains momentum, Madhes-centric forces appear pushed to the margins, even in their traditional stronghold. Political analyst Chandrakishor says the situation looks bleak. He argues that apart from a few leaders who might win on personal strength, most candidates seem weak. No party appears confident of victory based on organization alone. Party chiefs themselves cannot feel secure. He does not predict a wipeout, but he sees no wave in their favor.

He describes this phase as a season of decline. According to him, poor performance in federal, provincial, and local governments has hurt them. The Gen Z protests did not bring any real change inside these parties. Candidate selection also followed the same old pattern.

Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal, Janamat Party, Rastriya Mukti Party Nepal, Nagarik Unmukti Party Nepal, and other Madhes-based groups are contesting separately. Upendra Yadav is contesting from Saptari 3. Mahanta Thakur has already entered the National Assembly. Rajendra Mahato is in Sarlahi 2, and Dr CK Raut is contesting from Saptari 2. None enjoy the dominance they once had. They must work hard to secure results.

Though these parties once formed alliances, coordination has collapsed in this election. Most are fighting alone. Rastriya Mukti Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party, and JSP Ashok Rai faction share an election symbol, but broader unity is absent. Smaller alliances, such as the one led by Rizwan Ansari, have shown little impact.

Several leaders face tough battles. Anil Kumar Jha contests under the Nepali Congress banner against Madhav Kumar Nepal. Sharat Singh Bhandari faces a strong challenge from Congress candidate Kiran Yadav. Mahanta Thakur’s daughter Meenakshi Yadav is contesting in Mahottari 3 and faces rebellion from within her own party.

Rajkishor Yadav, who won in 2022 from Siraha 2, is now contesting from Siraha 4. He faces competition from the Rastriya Swatantra Party, which shows growing influence in the area. Dr Birendra Mahato, once with JSP Nepal, now represents Janamat Party. Multiple contenders make the race tight.

Hridayesh Tripathi again faces Binod Chaudhary in Nawalparasi 1. Sarbendra Nath Shukla contests from Rupandehi 4, but he faces challenges from Congress, Janamat Party, and Rastriya Swatantra Party candidates. Party switching has further complicated local dynamics.

In Dhanusha 3, Rastriya Mukti Party’s vice chair Rajiv Jha resigned and joined the Rastriya Swatantra Party, backing another candidate. In Saptari 3, internal divisions are clear. Though JSP Nepal and Rastriya Mukti Party belong to the same front, a candidate supported Congress instead of Upendra Yadav. These fractures show weak coordination among Madhes-based forces.

Madhes Province holds major electoral weight. With over 3.6 million voters, it elects around 55 lawmakers through direct and proportional systems. Past results show that parties performing well in Madhes often emerge as national leaders. That is why national parties focus heavily on the province.

In the last election, Nepali Congress secured the highest votes in Madhes. UML followed. JSP Nepal and Janamat Party also drew significant support. Rastriya Swatantra Party gained a modest but notable share. Several smaller parties failed to cross the threshold.

Social researcher Sohan Sah says Madhes-based parties may not repeat past performance. Many young voters show little interest in them. He believes these parties failed to reform their approach. They continued with old methods and ideas, which weakened public appeal.

Sah does not expect total collapse. Organizational vote banks still exist. Even if they lose seats, they may secure respectable vote shares. He compares the situation to some Indian parties that lose elections but maintain steady voter support.

This election may not erase Madhes-based parties. Still, it tests their relevance, leadership, and ability to adapt. Without internal reform and stronger coordination, their influence may shrink further.  

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